The Texas Dairy Industry’s Consumer Trends Report
Consumer trends decide what dairy products fill grocery shelves and which ones struggle. Here is how to read a trends report and what Texas dairy farms can take from it.
What do consumer trend reports measure?
They track what people buy, how often, in what forms and why. Sources include retail scan data, surveys and food service reports. Trends can cover fluid milk, cheese, butter, yogurt, ice cream and plant-based alternatives.
The report named in the headline is an editorial subject. Any statistics you see attributed to it are as reported and should be checked at the original source.
Retail data may show strong sales for one product while another declines, even if total dairy consumption looks flat. Ask what is being compared.
Also note whether a report covers only grocery sales or also restaurants, schools and other food service, which move very different amounts of dairy.
Why trends matter to a dairy farm
Demand shapes prices, plant investment and the products your milk becomes. A shift toward cheese and protein products affects the components buyers want in your milk, while a fall in fluid sales changes where milk goes.
You cannot control consumers, but you can understand where your buyer is placed. Ask which products your milk goes into and how those are doing.
Remember that milk from your farm is mixed with other milk at the plant, so your buyer, not the shopper, is your direct customer. That makes the buyer's strategy the first thing to understand.
Ask your buyer whether it hears from retailers about what shoppers are asking for, and whether that has changed the milk components it wants.
Where reliable data comes from
The Economic Research Service tracks food spending and consumption, NASS reports production and Dairy Market News covers prices. Industry groups like IDFA and Dairy MAX publish marketing research.
Read methods and sample sizes, and watch out for reports from groups with a product to sell.
Beware of survey answers about what people say they will buy. What people tell a pollster and what they put in the cart can be quite different.
- Who ran the survey?
- How many people answered?
- What time period?
- What products are included?
Common trend themes
Reports often discuss convenience, protein, flavor innovation, health perceptions, price sensitivity, plant-based alternatives and how a product is produced. Each of these can shift over time, and some are short-lived fads.
Take any claim about a trend with some care. A product that grows quickly from a small base may still be small. Check the numbers and the time frame.
Younger shoppers, for example, are often reported to value different things than older ones, but treat generalizations about any group with caution.
The role of price
Price is among the strongest drivers of grocery choices. When household budgets are tight, shoppers trade down to store brands or cheaper alternatives, and when budgets ease they may trade up. Reports that ignore price can mislead.
Look for analyses that separate changes in volume from changes in price. A product can grow in dollars simply because it costs more, while the number of units sold stays flat.
Texas has a diverse population and strong regional food traditions, so national trends do not always match what happens in local stores.
What a Texas dairy can do with the information
Use trends to ask questions of your buyer and to think about long-term plans. Some farms add value through on-farm processing, direct sales or niche products, but those take capital and skill and rules apply. The farm money guide helps you test ideas.
Texas dairies near Stephenville and metro areas may find local demand for specialty items. Check with the Texas Department of Agriculture about marketing programs and licensing.
If you sell direct, talk to your customers. A few honest conversations can teach you more than a thick report.
Keep a sense of perspective
Trends come and go, and farms that stay focused on cow health, milk quality and cost control tend to weather them best. Use the report as one input among many. See the dairy herd guide for the production side.
Over at farm.FM the dairy page and satire section have plenty of fun with food fads, and a farm.FM story on consumer demand for milk is a good place to start.
Revisit the topic once or twice a year. Trends rarely move overnight, and an annual check keeps you informed without constant worry.
Sources and further reading
- USDA Economic Research Service: farm economy data and analysis
- USDA NASS: agricultural statistics and surveys
- USDA Dairy Market News: weekly dairy price reports
- IDFA: International Dairy Foods Association
- Dairy MAX: dairy promotion in the Southwest
- Texas Department of Agriculture: state agriculture agency
Ask locally: Ask your milk buyer or cooperative marketing staff how consumer demand shows up in the products your milk becomes.